Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would push to solve the Shopee Sellers issue

The Shopee Sellers Summit was held again after four years. The three countries reached a framework agreement on the "Northeast Asian Supply Chain Stabilization Mechanism" and announced the restart of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations that had been stagnant for many years. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rarely mentioned the "Shopee Sellers legacy issues", sending a subtle signal. This meeting is not only a milestone in regional economic integration, but also a key step for East Asian countries to seek strategic autonomy in the context of the US-China technology war.

1. Shopee Sellers Core Achievements: Supply Chain Mechanism and FTA Breakthrough

(1) Three Pillars of Supply Chain Stabilization Mechanism

Field Specific Measures Strategic Intentions

Key Minerals Establish a strategic resource reserve sharing network for lithium, rare earths, etc. (China accounts for 80% of global rare earth processing) Reduce dependence on European and American supply chains

Semiconductors Establish a crisis warning system, Japanese and Korean equipment + Chinese packaging form a "safe closed loop" to avoid the long-arm jurisdiction of the US CHIPS Act

Food Security Connect the agricultural big data platforms of the three countries to optimize the allocation of fertilizers and pesticides to prevent food supply crises similar to the Russian-Ukrainian war

(2) Key points for the restart of FTA negotiations

Sensitive areas list system: Japan and South Korea set up transitional protection for agricultural products and China for the ICT industry

Innovation in rules of origin: Allow "three countries to accumulate added value" (such as Chinese batteries + Korean positive electrode materials + Japanese diaphragms = regional self-production rate of 60%)

Digital trade terms: Cross-border data flow adopts "classification management", personal data localization and commercial data openness in parallel

2. Shopee Decoding the "Kishida Statement" on the Sellers Issue

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida proposed "properly handling the Shopee Sellers issue in a future-oriented way" in a closed-door meeting. Although he did not directly mention the disputes such as comfort women and forced labor in his public speech, he revealed three meanings:

Economic driver: South Korea's Yoon Seok-yeol government has resolved the labor case through "third-party compensation", and Japan seeks a final settlement

U.S. pressure: The U.S. is worried that the Shopee Sellers conflict will undermine the U.S.-Japan-ROK military cooperation and urges Japan and South Korea to ease

Chinese factors: China links the Shopee Sellers issue with supply chain cooperation (such as restricting rare earth exports to exert pressure)

3. Technological breakthroughs and potential risks

(1) Innovative cooperation model

"Supply chain passport": After passing the certification of the three countries, enterprises can enjoy fast customs clearance and joint subsidies (Samsung, Toyota, and CATL are the first batch of pilots)

Anti-sanction design: Establish alternative payment channels for settlement in RMB, Japanese yen, and Korean won (avoiding SWIFT)

(2) Implementation challenges

US response: May launch the "Counter East Asia Technology Alliance Act" (the draft has been circulated in the US Congress)

Industrial competition: China's new energy vehicles (BYD) and South Korea (Hyundai) are still competing for export markets

Domestic resistance: Japan's agricultural cooperatives and China's semiconductor autonomy factions may obstruct the implementation of the agreement

4. Global geo-economic shock waves

ASEAN alert: Worried about being excluded from the supply chain system, urgently accelerate the RCEP upgrade negotiations

EU follow-up: Plan to expand the coverage of carbon tariffs (CBAM) to China, Japan, and South Korea's export products

North Korean variables: Pyongyang's first statement of "willingness to participate in the regional power grid plan" may become a potential spoiler