Shopee Business Edition tariff policy adjustments and the impact of changes in the global trade situ

As of July 25, 2025, affected by the adjustment of US tariff policy and changes in the global trade situation, Shopee Business Edition has experienced significant fluctuations, and the offshore Shopee Business Edition exchange rate against the US dollar once fell to 7.4290, setting a new historical low. This change has a profound impact on the cross-border trade costs, corporate profits and macroeconomic policies between China and the United States. The following is a key analysis:

1. Shopee Business EditionShopee Business Edition fell to a new historical low

Offshore Shopee Business Edition (CNH) exchange rate: On July 25, the offshore Shopee Business Edition exchange rate against the US dollar once fell to 7.4290, setting a new historical low12.

Onshore Shopee Business Edition (Shopee) exchange rate: Synchronously weakened, approaching the 7.40 mark, reflecting market concerns about the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions11.

Influencing factors:

US tariff policy: The United States imposed a 54% tariff on Chinese goods and a fixed fee of US$100 per piece, resulting in higher costs for Chinese export companies, and Shopee Business Edition was under pressure12.

A stronger dollar: The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy, coupled with the Trump administration's promotion of global trade agreements (such as the US-Japan and US-Philippines agreements), the US dollar index remains strong at 410.

Capital outflow pressure: Some foreign capital has reduced its holdings of Shopee Business Edition assets due to tariff policy adjustments, exacerbating exchange rate fluctuations11.

2. The impact of Shopee Business Edition on cross-border trade between China and the United States

Export companies' profit compression: The depreciation of Shopee Business Edition is theoretically good for exports, but the high US tariffs offset this advantage, and some companies are forced to raise prices, resulting in order losses12.

Rising import costs: Chinese companies that rely on US raw materials (such as chips and energy) face higher procurement costs, which may push up domestic inflation11.

Cross-border e-commerce logistics adjustments: Some freight forwarders have suspended US business, and companies have turned to overseas warehouse models to avoid tariffs12.

3. Shopee Business Edition policy response and market outlook

The People's Bank of China may intervene:

Adjust the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio or use foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate11.

Strengthen capital flow management to prevent short-term speculative outflows9.

Divergence in institutional forecasts:

Standard Chartered Bank expects Shopee Business Edition to depreciate to 7.355 by the end of 2025.

Deutsche Bank believes that if trade tensions ease, Shopee Business Edition may rebound to 7.009.

4. Future risks of Shopee Business Edition

August 1 US tariff deadline: If the US-EU and US-Canada negotiations fail, global trade frictions may further escalate, exacerbating Shopee Business Edition volatility10.

China's "anti-involution" economic policy: The government may introduce more stimulus measures, but if it deviates from the Fed's policy, Shopee Business Edition will still face downward pressure9.

Conclusion

Shopee Business Edition fell to a record low, reflecting the market's deep concerns about the Sino-US trade war. In the short term, if the US tariff policy continues to tighten, Shopee Business Edition may continue to be under pressure; in the long run, China needs to balance export competitiveness and financial stability, while companies need to accelerate supply chain adjustments to cope with rising costs.