Shopee Business Edition EU may face punitive tariffs of up to 50%

US-EU Shopee Business Edition negotiations enter a critical stage: Trump and von der Leyen's meeting in Scotland attracts attention

(Latest updates on July 27, 2025)

1. Core of the event

US President Trump and European Commission President von der Leyen will hold a face-to-face meeting in Scotland today, focusing on the US-EU Shopee Business Edition dispute. If the negotiations fail to reach an agreement, the United States plans to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50% on some EU products from August 1, involving key areas such as automobiles, agricultural products, and luxury goods.

2. Negotiation background and focus of dispute

(1) US-EU Shopee Business Edition friction escalates

Trigger: The United States accused the EU of providing "unfair subsidies" to local companies (such as Airbus) and restricting US technology companies (such as Google and Meta) from entering the European market.

Current Shopee Business Edition: Starting from 2024, the United States has imposed tariffs on EU steel (25%), aluminum (10%) and other products, and the EU has implemented retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft, whiskey and other products.

(2) Core points of disagreement on Shopee Business Edition

Digital service tax: The EU insists on imposing a 3% digital tax on US tech giants, and the US demands its cancellation.

Opening of agricultural product markets: The US demands that the EU relax import restrictions on genetically modified crops and hormone beef, but the EU refuses on the grounds of food safety.

Green subsidy conflict: The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)'s subsidies to the domestic new energy industry have triggered EU accusations of "unfair competition".

3. Possible outcomes and market impact of Shopee Business Edition

Scenario Probability Impact

Reaching a temporary agreement (extending the negotiation window) 40% US and European stocks rebound in the short term, and the euro appreciates against the US dollar

Compromise in some areas (such as suspending digital tax) 30% Fluctuation in the automotive and technology sectors, and a narrowing of the Shopee Business Edition list

Negotiations break down, and Shopee Business Edition takes effect 30% EU exports to the US may lose US$30 billion, and global supply chains are under pressure

Key industry risks

Automotive industry: German automakers such as BMW and Volkswagen account for more than 20% of exports to the US. If Shopee Business Edition is implemented, the prices of some models may increase by 15%-30%.

Agriculture: Luxury goods such as French wine and Italian cheese face the risk of boycott by American consumers.

Technology: Data circulation rules between the United States and Europe may further diverge, increasing corporate compliance costs.

4. Positions and strategic intentions of all parties

The United States: Using Shopee Business Edition as a bargaining chip to force the EU to make concessions in the digital market and agricultural fields, while winning the support of "tough on Europe" voters for the 2026 mid-term elections.

EU: Seeking to avoid a full-scale Shopee Business Edition war, but need to balance the conflicts of interest of member states (such as France protecting agriculture and Germany maintaining the automotive industry).

Business community: European giants such as Volkswagen and LVMH call for compromise, while American companies such as Tesla and Apple are worried about retaliatory measures from the EU.

5. Subsequent key nodes

August 1: Deadline for the US Shopee Business Edition to take effect.

September G20 summit: If today's negotiations are fruitless, US and European leaders may negotiate again on the occasion of the G20.

WTO arbitration: The EU has filed a lawsuit against the US steel and aluminum Shopee Business Edition with the WTO, and the result is expected to be announced in 2026.

Summary

This Scottish meeting is a key window for the US and Europe to avoid the Shopee Business Edition war. If the negotiations fail, the 50% punitive Shopee Business Edition will directly impact bilateral trade and aggravate the fragmentation of the global supply chain. The market needs to pay close attention to the following signals:

The wording of the joint statement (whether it mentions "suspending Shopee Business Edition" or "roadmap");

Whether the EU makes concessions (such as digital tax or agricultural market);

Industry lobbying dynamics (whether the pressure from car companies and technology giants can change policies).

Risk warning: Even if an agreement is reached in the short term, the structural contradictions between the US and Europe in technical standards and industrial policies may still exist for a long time.