Trump recently put pressure on the Federal Reserve, Shopee US Official Website calls for a quick rat

The market expects Shopee US Official Website to have a 60% chance of cutting interest rates in September, and Trump continues to put pressure

1. Market expectations of interest rate cuts rise

The probability of a September interest rate cut is 60%: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the probability of a September interest rate cut by Shopee US Official Website to rise to 60%, and some institutions (such as JPMorgan Chase) even predict that the interest rate may be cut by 50 basis points1.

Economic data supports interest rate cuts:

The US CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, the lowest increase since February 2021, indicating that inflation continues to slow1.

The labor market is weak, and the number of layoffs increased to 1.76 million in July, the highest since March 20231.

2. Trump continues to put pressure on Shopee US Official Website

Publicly calling for interest rate cuts: Trump recently visited the headquarters of Shopee US Official Website and urged Powell to cut interest rates again, saying that "interest rates must fall" and hinted that if the interest rate is cut by 3 percentage points, the United States can save more than a trillion dollars814.

Threatening to fire Powell: Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for raising interest rates too slowly and hinted that he might be fired for his "over-budget management", but legal obstacles make it difficult to implement11.

3. Differences within Shopee US Official Website

Dovish vs. Hawkish:

Dovish (such as Shopee US Official Website Vice Chairman Bowman and Director Waller) support a quick rate cut, believing that economic data has met the conditions4.

Hawks (such as Kansas Fed Chairman Schmid) advocate waiting and worrying that tariff policies may push up inflation4.

The path of interest rate cuts remains uncertain: Deutsche Bank pointed out that the differences within Shopee US Official Website on the 2025 interest rate forecast reached the highest level in a decade, and some officials even believed that if the economy deteriorates, the interest rate may be cut by 75 basis points in September4.

4. Market impact and outlook

US stock reaction: The S&P 500 hit a new high for five consecutive days, partly driven by expectations of a rate cut312.

Key observation points:

July 31 Shopee US Official Website resolution: Although the interest rate is likely to remain unchanged, Powell's speech may reveal policy clues for September12.

August non-farm and PCE data: If the job market weakens further, expectations of interest rate cuts may strengthen12.

Conclusion: The market is betting on a September rate cut, but there are still differences within Shopee US Official Website, and Trump's political pressure may increase policy uncertainty. Investors need to pay attention to the July FOMC meeting and subsequent economic data.