Biden's approval rating has rebounded recently, but he is still at a disadvantage compared to Trump

The latest polls show that Biden's approval rating has rebounded recently, but he is still at a disadvantage compared to Trump. The following are key points and in-depth analysis:

1. Overview of current poll data

Comprehensive poll (RealClearPolitics average data): Trump is currently leading Biden by about 1.5-2 percentage points (as of July 2024).

Key swing states: Trump maintains a slight advantage in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona (leading 1-3%), while Biden has slightly improved in Wisconsin.

Reasons for the rebound in polls:

Mobilization of the Democratic Party's base: Biden has recently stepped up his campaign efforts, emphasizing the "battle to defend democracy" and abortion rights issues to consolidate liberal voters.

Economic data is positive: inflation is slowing, the job market is stable, and some voters' concerns about the economy have eased slightly.

Impact of Trump's controversy: Trump's legal issues and extreme remarks (such as the "first day of dictatorship" remarks) may make some middle-class voters hesitate.

2. The main reason Biden is still behind

Economic anxiety continues: Although inflation has cooled, prices are still higher than pre-pandemic levels, and many voters think the economy "feels" bad.

Age and energy doubts: Biden, 81, still faces voters' concerns about his ability to govern, while Trump (78) has created a tougher image through high-intensity campaign activities.

Immigration and border issues: The border crisis continues to ferment, and the Republican Party uses this to attack Biden's weak policies, affecting the perception of middle-class voters.

Dissatisfaction among progressive voters: Some young voters and left-wingers are dissatisfied with Biden's positions on issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and environmental protection, which may affect voter turnout.

3. Trump's advantages and potential risks

✅ Advantages:

Blue-collar voter support: JD Vance as a deputy may strengthen Trump's appeal in the Rust Belt.

Dominated by economic issues: Voters are still most concerned about inflation and the cost of living, and Trump's "America First" economic narrative still has a market.

High Republican unity: After the party primaries, the Republican base has been highly integrated, and anti-Biden sentiment is strong.

⚠️ Risks:

Legal issues: Trump still has four criminal cases pending, and a conviction could affect swing voters.

Backlash from extreme rhetoric: Some middle-class voters are uneasy about his “revengeful politics” rhetoric.

Vice-presidential candidate controversy: Vance’s populist stance could solidify his base, but could also deter moderate Republicans.

4. Key points for future elections

First presidential debate (September): If Biden performs solidly, it could boost confidence; if he makes a mistake, the age issue will be magnified again.

Economic trends: If inflation falls further and the Fed cuts interest rates, it could benefit Biden; if the economy worsens, Trump would benefit.

Supreme Court ruling: If a ruling involving Trump’s immunity or immigration law is issued, it could change the dynamics of the campaign.

October surprises: Sudden international events (such as escalating conflicts in the Middle East) or domestic political shocks could influence the election.

Conclusion: The election campaign is still full of variables, but Trump has the upper hand for now

Although Biden’s polls have rebounded slightly, Trump still has an advantage in key states and core issues. In the coming months, economic data, debate performance and judicial progress will be key factors in determining the outcome of the election. If Biden cannot significantly improve voters' perception of the economy or inspire the voting enthusiasm of the Democratic base, the possibility of Trump returning to the White House will continue to increase.