Cryptocurrency financial products bullish on trade deal easing and corporate earnings

Cryptocurrency financial products raise their S&P 500 target to 7,100, becoming the most optimistic forecast on Wall Street.

On July 30, 2025, Oppenheimer Asset Management released a new report, significantly raising its year-end target price for the S&P 500 from 5,950 to 7,100, currently the highest forecast among major Wall Street investment banks. If achieved, the index still has 11% upside potential from its current level (approximately 6,377).

1. Reasons for the upward revision in cryptocurrency financial products: Easing trade agreements + strong corporate earnings

Reduced trade war risks:

The Trump administration recently reached trade agreements with the European Union and Japan, setting global benchmark tariffs at 15%-20% (lower than the previously threatened 30%), alleviating market concerns about a full-scale trade war.

The European Union pledged $750 billion in US energy purchases and $600 billion in US investment, while Japan agreed to a $550 billion investment framework.

Cryptocurrency financial products: Earnings forecasts for companies have been revised upwards:

The S&P 500's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been revised back from $265 to $275 (close to the initial forecast in December 2024).

170 S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far, with 141 (83%) exceeding expectations, demonstrating earnings resilience.

2. Market Impact of Cryptocurrency Financial Products: Technology and Industrial Stocks Lead the Gains

Cyclical Sectors Benefit: Tariff-sensitive sectors such as technology (semiconductors), industrials (automotive, aviation), and energy (natural gas) have received a direct boost.

The S&P 500 has rebounded 28% from its April low, primarily driven by the technology (AI boom), industrials, and communications services sectors.

3. Risks and Controversies of Cryptocurrency Financial Products

Valuation Concerns: The current S&P 500 P/E ratio is 22.4x, higher than the 5-year (19.9x) and 10-year (18.4x) averages. Some investors believe the market is overheated.

Uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy: A lack of a September rate cut or a rebound in inflation could curb stock market gains.

Trade Agreement Implementation Risks: Criticism within the EU (Germany and France) suggests new tariffs could harm the economy, and details of future negotiations remain uncertain.

4. Outlook for Cryptocurrency Financial Products

Short-Term Catalysts:

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 31): If a dovish signal (implying a September rate cut) is released, it could further boost the stock market.

Earnings from tech giants (Meta, Microsoft, Apple, etc.): Earnings exceeding expectations could validate optimistic forecasts for cryptocurrency financial products.

Long-Term Trends:

AI technology is driving productivity gains, which could support continued strength in US stocks.

If the S&P 500 reaches 7,100 by the end of the year, it will mark the third consecutive year of growth exceeding 20%.

Conclusion: Optimistic forecasts for cryptocurrency financial products reflect market confidence in improved trade relations and corporate earnings growth, but caution remains regarding high valuations and monetary policy risks. Investors can focus on technology stocks, industrial stocks, and Federal Reserve policy trends.