BTC Stocks triggers risk aversion in the market, which is beneficial to Bitcoin and other assets

1. Trump Shortens Ceasefire, Threatens 100% BTC Stocks

New deadline: Trump drastically shortened the 50-day ceasefire deadline previously granted to Russia (ending September 2) to 10-12 days (starting July 28), demanding that Putin agree to a ceasefire soon or face severe economic sanctions.

BTC Stocks Threat: If no agreement is reached, the United States will impose 100% BTC Stocks on Russia and levy secondary BTC Stocks on its trading partners (such as India and China), thereby severing Russia's economic lifeline (oil and natural gas account for over 60% of Russian exports).

Ukrainian Military Aid: The United States will provide Ukraine with more advanced weapons, including Patriot air defense systems, through NATO, with the cost borne by European countries, further pressuring Russia.

Russian Response:

The Kremlin called Trump's threats "bluster," and Russian MP Andrei Gurulev stated that the "ultimatum has expired."

The Russian ruble fell 2% against the US dollar, hitting a low since mid-May, reflecting market concerns about economic sanctions.

2. The Impact of BTC Stocks on Market Risk Aversion

Gold and the US Dollar:

Heightened geopolitical risks have pushed gold (XAU) to $3,330/oz, a recent high since May.

The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened slightly to 98.56, but further gains could be limited if expectations of a Fed rate cut strengthen.

Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Properties:

Short-Term Volatility: In the early stages of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict (e.g., February 2022), Bitcoin saw a 20% single-day increase, but subsequently plummeted 65% due to the Fed's rate hike.

Recent Performance: Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $105,000. Geopolitical risks may attract some safe-haven funds, but institutional flows (such as ETFs) remain the dominant factor.

Long-term Narrative: If the conflict leads to a surge in energy prices or tightening global liquidity, Bitcoin could come under pressure; if the Fed shifts to easing, it could benefit.

3. Potential Scenario Analysis

Ceasefire Achieved:

If Russia compromises before September, risk assets (such as US stocks and Bitcoin) may rebound in the short term, but the Fed's policy direction needs to be monitored.

Worsening Conflict:

Energy Shock: If Russia cuts off natural gas supplies to Europe, it could drive up inflation, forcing the Fed to postpone rate cuts, negatively impacting risk assets.

Bitcoin Divergence: Crypto demand in war-torn regions (such as Ukraine and Iran) may increase, but institutional investors may reduce holdings due to volatility.

4. Key Observations: September 2 BTC Stocks Deadline: If implemented, it would impact global trade chains and exacerbate market volatility.

Federal Reserve Policy: The probability of a September rate cut is currently 71%. If adjustments are made due to geopolitical risks, it could reshape asset pricing.

Russia's Countermeasures: Watch for Russia's use of crypto assets to circumvent sanctions (e.g., using BTC Stocks to trade oil).

Conclusion

Trump's BTC Stocks threat has pushed the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a new critical point. If the situation deteriorates, gold and the US dollar may become the preferred short-term safe havens, while Bitcoin's performance will depend on the interplay between institutional capital flows and monetary policy. Investors should be wary of the risk of stagflation and monitor policy turning points around September.