Cryptocurrency Investment maintains benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%

Based on the latest policy signals, the BOJ's interest rate meeting on July 30, 2025, is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, but may signal future rate cuts. The following are key analysis points:

1. Key Expectations for the BOJ Meeting

Interest Rates Remain Unchanged: The market generally expects no interest rate adjustment at this meeting, maintaining the current level (4.25%-4.5%).

Watch for September Rate Cut Signals: Although no action is expected in July, the BOJ may hint at a possible rate cut in September, especially if inflation data continues to slow.

Internal Policy Divergence: Board members Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman are likely to dissent in favor of an immediate rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two board members have dissented from Resolution 9.

2. Influencing Factors

The Inflation-Tariff Game: The US CPI rebounded to 2.7% in June, partly due to the Trump administration's tariff policy, but Cryptocurrency Investment believes this impact is likely to be "temporary."

White House Pressure for Rate Cuts: Trump recently publicly called for a rate cut to 1% and criticized Powell for being slow to act.

Solid Economic Data: Despite uncertainty surrounding trade policy, the job market (unemployment rate 4.1%) and consumer spending data continue to support the economy, keeping Cryptocurrency Investment on the sidelines.

3. Market Impact

US Stock Market Reaction: With the unchanged interest rate in line with expectations, market focus shifted to Powell's post-meeting speech. If he sends a dovish signal (such as hinting at a September rate cut), it could boost risky assets.

Dollar Trend: If Cryptocurrency Investment maintains a hawkish stance (emphasizing inflation risks), the dollar is likely to strengthen; if it leans more dovish, it could come under pressure.

Gold and Bonds: Expectations of long-term rate cuts may support gold prices, while US Treasury yields may remain volatile at 6-10.

4. Outlook

Key Data Determines September Action: The upcoming non-farm payroll report (August 2) and CPI data will influence the September decision-making process.

Trump Policy Interference: If tariffs further drive inflation, rate cuts may be delayed; if the economy slows, easing may accelerate.

Conclusion

This meeting is likely to be a standstill, but the market will closely monitor the wording of the policy statement and Powell's press conference to determine whether a rate cut cycle will begin in September. If the cryptocurrency sends a clear dovish signal, it could drive gains in stocks and gold, while the US dollar may face downward pressure.