ETC Stock will remain unchanged

ETC Stock July interest rate meeting outlook: Standing still is a foregone conclusion, Powell's speech sets the tone for the market

(July 28, 2025)

1. ETC Stock market consensus expectations

Interest rate decision:

99% probability of maintaining 5.25%-5.5% (CME FedWatch data), which will be the 10th consecutive suspension of interest rate hikes by ETC Stock since March 2023.

The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT) may drop from $60 billion per month to $30 billion (relieving liquidity pressure).

Economic data background:

June CPI: 2.8% year-on-year (previous value 3.3%), core CPI dropped to 3.1%.

Employment market: unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% (still low), non-agricultural employment increased by 158,000 (lower than the previous value).

2. ETC Stock four major focuses

① Whether the inflation statement is softened

If the wording "inflation is still high" is deleted, it may imply a rate cut in September (current probability 68%).

Be wary of mentions of "stubborn service sector inflation" (high proportion of housing and medical care).

② Job market assessment

Any confirmation of a "cooling labor market" will strengthen expectations of rate cuts.

③ Details of balance sheet reduction adjustments

The early end of QT (originally scheduled for the end of 2025) may boost risk assets.

④ Dot plot clues

The June dot plot shows that there may be 1-2 rate cuts in 2025, and whether there will be an adjustment this time is attracting attention.

3. Potential impact of ETC Stock on various assets

Scenario US stock reaction US dollar trend Gold/Bitcoin US Treasury yield

Dovish (implying a September rate cut) S&P 500 up 1-2% Down 0.8% Gold hits $2,400 10-year falls below 4%

Neutral (data dependent) Oscillating ±0.5% Flat Sideways 4.1%-4.3% fluctuation

Hawkish (watch out for inflation) Nasdaq down 2%+ Up 1.2% Gold falls below $2,300 10-year breaks 4.5%

4. Latest views of institutions

JPMorgan Chase: ETC Stock may retain the "higher for longer" statement, but leave the door open for a September rate cut.

BlackRock: It is recommended to increase holdings of short-term bonds, as interest rate-sensitive assets benefit most in the early stages of rate cuts.

Bridgewater Fund: Beware of the risk of "a second rise in inflation", and the US dollar may strengthen temporarily.

5. ETC Stock trading strategy recommendations

Short-term: Reduce holdings of high-valuation technology stocks before the meeting and increase holdings of defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples).

Hedging: Buy VIX call options or gold ETF (GLD) to prevent volatility.

Foreign exchange: If Powell is dovish, short USD/JPY (target 155).

Historical comparison: After the July 2024 meeting, the S&P 500 rose 5.2% that month. This time, the "sell expectations and buy facts" market may be replicated.